Hans Rosling – GapMinder – Factfulness – Human Development – Adult Education

Time to revisit the late but great Professor Hans Rosling of Gapminder Foundation on the need to for improved skills of analysis and critical thinking, as reflected in commentary round population linkages with environment, poverty and lack of education in the less developed world, amongst educated western elites who remain ignorant of both the outside world and the developing world.

Although Rosling did not then challenge the UNPD high end of century population forecasts, they have been revised downwards due to more demographic research on the ground in developing nations. 

More recent research is finding that fertility rates are dropping faster and later research by Bricker & Ibbitson released in ‘Empty Planet’ confirms this and many other researchers support the same; now Covid has accentuated further the rate of decline, hence, the global population does not seem able to get much past the 8 billion’ish mark? What is the issue?

From Gapminder Foundation:

Factfulness (the book)

When asked simple questions about global trends―what percentage of the world’s population live in poverty; why the world’s population is increasing; how many girls finish school―we systematically get the answers wrong. 

So wrong that a chimpanzee choosing answers at random will consistently outguess teachers, journalists, Nobel laureates, and investment bankers.

Factfulness offers a radical new explanation of why this happens. It reveals the ten instincts that distort our perspective―from our tendency to divide the world into two camps (usually some version of us and them) to the way we consume media (where fear rules) to how we perceive progress (believing that most things are getting worse).

Our problem is that we don’t know what we don’t know, and even our guesses are informed by unconscious and predictable biases.

It turns out that the world, for all its imperfections, is in a much better state than we might think.That doesn’t mean there aren’t real concerns. But when we worry about everything all the time instead of embracing a worldview based on facts, we can lose our ability to focus on the things that threaten us most.

Inspiring and revelatory, filled with lively anecdotes and moving stories, Factfulness is a new thinking habit that will change the way you see the world and empower you to respond to challenges and opportunities of the future.

This book is my last battle in my life-long mission to fight devastating ignorance…Previously I armed myself with huge data sets, eye-opening software, an energetic learning style and a Swedish bayonet for sword-swallowing. It wasn’t enough. But I hope this book will be.” – Hans Rosling, February 2017.

Hans Rosling – The facts and ignorance about population growth

Population Growth or Decline?

NOM Net Overseas Migration – Immigration – Population Growth

Immigration Immigrants and Public Misconceptions

Global Warming – Climate Change – Eco-Fascism

Population Demographic Decline

Russian Dark Money – Influencing British Politics, the Conservative Party, the GOP and European Right

A recent Open Democracy UK article by Layla Moran, the Liberal Democrat spokesperson on foreign affairs ‘If the UK wants to push back against Russia, it should follow the money’, warning of what is well known in the UK and elsewhere, City of London especially, and Britain (of course lack of clarity round the Trump campaign and Russian influence). 

They have become magnets for hot or dark money of oligarchs including Russian, Ukrainian, African, Asian etc. to be laundered by British enablers and/or donate in support of more imported radical right libertarian policies of the Tories including climate denial or delays on substantive action.

This has been doubled down on by CEE & Russia security & energy expert Edward Lucas, and it also contradicts the messaging of the Tories and Brexit. They were claiming that Brexit was for ‘sovereignty’, but whose sovereignty? Certainly not about ‘sovereignty’ of British institutions, and neither Russian nor Ukrainian citizens who are law abiding? 

Seems more like the acceptance by the Anglosphere and globally of authoritarianism, dictatorship, fossil fuels/mining, climate science denial, few if any robust environmental policies, libertarian socioeconomics, white exceptionalism, kleptocracy and freedom for the 0.1%, but the majority of citizens are not empowered and need to be quiet?

The Open Democracy article follows:  

If the UK wants to push back against Russia, it should follow the money

Britain’s lax approach to dirty money makes it a target for Russian interference, but the government has done nothing about it. Now is the time to take action.

Layla Moran

26 January 2022, 1.01pm

The severity of the crisis currently playing out on the borders of Ukraine cannot be underestimated. This is the closest Europe has come to war in almost three decades.

At this moment of danger, it is vital that Britain plays its part and shows Putin that aggression comes at a high price – one not worth paying. But I am hugely concerned that, while our rhetoric might be tough, our actions are febrile.

It is not just worrying diplomatic missteps, like the foreign secretary’s decision to chase the sun in Australia rather than attend a vital meeting regarding the crisis in Berlin. The UK government has signalled time and again that it does not take Russian meddling in the UK seriously. If we do not take action to stop Putin from interfering in our country, how on earth are we meant to convince anyone that we will act robustly when he violates the integrity and sovereignty of other nations?

Successive reports from the foreign affairs and intelligence committees have warned of interference in the UK by Putin’s cronies. Successive Conservative governments have ignored them.

The 2018 Foreign Affairs Committee report, ‘Moscow’s Gold’, warned: “Turning a blind eye to London’s role in hiding the proceeds of Kremlin-connected corruption risks signalling that the UK is not serious about confronting the full spectrum of President Putin’s offensive measures”.

Until ministers take action on this front, our response to Russian aggression towards Ukraine will be toothless. Yet what has the government done in response? Absolutely nothing.

Similarly, the Intelligence and Security Committee’s Russia Report, published in 2020, warns that there are “lots of Russians with very close links to Putin who are well integrated into the UK business and social scene”. Two years on not a single one of the recommendations made to the UK government have been implemented. Concerns about Russian interference extend into UK politics too – in particular, the well-documented close links between Russian money and the Conservative Party.

One easy way the UK government could take action to prevent Putin’s cronies meddling in our country would be to introduce legislation to ensure Kremlin-linked Russian oligarchs can’t flood dirty money into the UK property market. Buying a property in the UK is, as it turns out, an incredibly easy way to launder money. You don’t need to declare who the ultimate, or beneficial, owner of that property is. So if it’s one of Putin’s corrupt cronies, all they would need to do is set up a holding company, often in a tax haven, and appoint someone else as director. It has been estimated that more than £1bn of suspicious Russian wealth rests in UK property.

The UK government does – in theory – admit this is not a sensible way to run things. Back in 2016, David Cameron promised to take action so that the ultimate owner of a property would have to declare who they were. But more than five years on, no such law exists. It hasn’t been introduced to Parliament. In 2018, the government took a draft version of this bill through the advance scrutiny stages that often take place before legislation is formally passed through Parliament. But these efforts went no further. The draft bill remains on the shelf, gathering dust. The UK government could sort this out in a matter of weeks, if not days, if it wanted to.

The government won’t take action to stop Russian interference in the UK. So I did. Last week, I introduced a bill to Parliament that would bring that transparency and help stamp out Russian corruption in the UK property market, using the text of the draft bill that the government shelved. It would send a signal to Putin that we will tackle him head on. And it had wide cross-party support – because this isn’t about party politics. It’s about national security.

The measures the UK government can and should take do not stop there. We must go further: making our democracy a national security priority and implementing the remainder of the Russia Report recommendations are two obvious next steps.

The Beast Reawakens 1997 – Review – Radical Right Populism in Europe and the Anglosphere

Following there is a brief article or review by Mark Potok in 2016, formerly of SPLC the Southern Poverty Law Center, why?  Because it is relevant when populist fascism, nationalism, eugenics tropes etc. have been reintroduced, evidenced by Helmut Kohl’s in ‘80s, Australia from 2001 and later Brexit, then Trump.

Of course the review was inspired by the latter i.e. Trump’s regime, but identifies key aspects i.e. middle class populism (of ageing white Christians) encouraged to rise up while othering outliers e.g. immigrants, Muslims, Jews, Chinese, Asians, educated people, unions, ‘the left’ etc; though one would argue this is coordinated by, and for, empowered white middle class?

Other contemporary aspects include Brexit, a radical right libertarian coup to implement neoliberal policies e.g. to withdraw from EU to avoid regulatory etc. constraints, but needed dog whistling of immigrants, Farage and Tanton Network to get the vote over the line (after decades of dog whistling).  In the US context this means power through nativism for neoliberal policies round fossil fuels, finance and related, i.e. avoid constraints of climate science and related measures e.g. carbon pricing.

The review also cites issues of white working or middle class in the US feeling that they are missing out, but it’s unclear if this is grounded in reality versus constant negative media agitprop via Fox etc.; many may find they have more in common with ‘immigrants’ than their own leaders….. However, like many in the media who follow the old eugenics trope or myth that immigration causes downward pressure on income, but no evidence?

This leads onto ‘the great replacement’ and impacts on working age, but many protagonists, as witnessed at Capitol Hill riot or the Tea Party astroturfing appear dominated by middle aged, retirees and older white types for whom low level jobs are not important? 

One would posit that it’s more about the success of and inroads made into public narratives and opinion, via media, by white nativists or nationalists promoting ‘the great replacement’ but through an ‘environmental’ or ‘economics’ lens.  

In the Anglosphere this is due to the long game of Tanton Network development of PR architecture of influence to make refugees, borders, immigration and population growth as proxy issues; ‘deceased white nationalist’ John Tanton, of German parentage, was known as the ‘puppeteer’ of the immigration restriction movement, muse of Steve Bannon and the alt right.

Behind the nativism, populism and noise, unpalatable neoliberal economic policies can be enacted, that are neither in the interests of the protagonists, coming generations nor the specific nation; Brexit is the most compelling example of both Koch and Tanton Network think tanks, with media support achieving a revolution i.e. wall to wall negative agitprop.

Further, we know there were corporate links between US plutocrats and Nazi Germany, with support for eugenics research, then post WWII many old relationship continued under various guises, includes in the USA.  To this day with the digital world, the alt right, white nationalism and neo Nazism has gone global in both the Anglosphere, Central Eastern Europe and even shared ideology in the Middle East i.e. outcome of the pre & post WWII distribution, of the anti semitic hoax ‘The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion’; the latter has now been adapted then morphed into the enduring myth i.e. the ‘Soros Conspiracy’.

From SPLC Intelligence Report  a review by Mark Potok of ‘The Beast Reawakens’ August 3, 2016

‘From the candidacy of Donald Trump to the British decision to leave the European Union (EU), from the rise of a radical movement of anti government county sheriffs to a metastasizing rage aimed at political and economic elites, something important and incredibly dangerous is happening in the Western world.

The beast of right-wing populism is reawakening.

When author Martin Lee titled his 1997 book The Beast Reawakens, the phrase he coined referred to the resurgence of Nazism in Europe. Today, it describes a far larger and far more dangerous set of movements that threaten to tear apart societies in both the United States and Europe. Their ideology is populist — the idea that “pits a virtuous and homogenous people against a set of elites and dangerous ‘others’ who are depicted as depriving the sovereign people” of their prosperity and rights, according to scholars Daniele Albertazzi and Duncan McDonnell.

In the United States, Trump is appealing directly to working- and lower middle-class whites and suggesting that their very real problems and insecurities are the fault of self-interested social elites — traditional politicians of both parties and media leaders — and of “dangerous others,” particularly Mexicans and Muslims. And, in typical populist manner, Trump offers himself up as the strongman who can solve seemingly intractable problems with bold, simple strokes.

In Europe, the leaders of the “Brexit” campaign managed to convince some 52% of voters that the cause of their economic and cultural malaise was a refugee and immigrant crisis enabled by the leaders of the European bloc. Those who voted to quit the EU were overwhelmingly older whites, many of them from the British equivalent of Rust Belt states in America. The sad irony is that those are the very areas that have been subsidized with huge amounts of money from the EU.

In the United States, the disaffection is helping drive a radical movement that seeks to delegitimize government, something seen in the “constitutional sheriffs” movement and the Bundy standoffs examined in this issue. In Europe, beyond the United Kingdom, it is reflected in the rise of populist, and often anti-Semitic and racist, political parties in places like France, Germany, Poland and Hungary.

The causes are complex. Globalization has increasingly knit nations together in a world economy, spurring huge movements of both workers and capital and causing enormous dislocations as a result. Manufacturing wages have been declining across the West for decades, income inequality is at historic levels, and the digital revolution has left those without university-level education far behind.

At the same time, major cultural changes — the rise of large immigrant communities, for instance, and the advance of same-sex marriage — increasingly are making many whites feel that the world they grew up in is disappearing. The idea that the future holds better things is under assault in both America and Europe.

Anne Marie Slaughter, who heads the New America Foundation, compares the present moment to the upheavals seen at the beginning of the 20th century, another period of brutal change. “What we are seeing,” she told The Atlantic in July, “is anger at the disruption of our economy and, really, our social order — of the magnitude we saw when the agricultural age gave way to the industrial age.”

“The digital revolution … is completely upending how we work,” she said, “what the sources of value are, how people can support their families, if they can at all, and creates tremendous fear and rage in the sense that you are at the mercy of forces you cannot control.”

In an essay for the History News Network, scholar Stephen W. Campbell analyzed the roots of Trump voters’ anger but also pointed out that the white working class still has long had it better than American minorities. “Part of [their] anger stems from economic inequality, but a major part, whether they will admit it or not, stems from the fear of rapid demographic change,” he wrote. “They are losing the privilege that has accumulated and redounded to their advantage over generations and almost no one willingly gives up privilege without a fight.”

This kind of rage, nurtured by opportunistic politicians and pundits riding the wave of political discontent, can be hard to quell. In the past, it has led to historic horrors like the rise of populism and racial nationalism that very nearly destroyed Europe in the 1930s and ’40s.

In the wake of the Brexit vote — which was preceded days earlier by the assassination of a pro-EU legislator by a neo-Nazi — Britain experienced a major wave of hate crimes against a whole array of minorities. On our side of the ocean, anti-Muslim violence and terrorist plots against government agencies reflect the rise of populist fury.

To suggest that the West is headed into the kind of social turmoil that led to fascism in Italy and Spain and Nazism in Germany is, hopefully, going too far. But to put the beast of populism back to sleep will require the best efforts of wise leaders, thoughtful voters, and effective government programs — all of which have been in short supply in recent years.’

See below for more blogs or articles related to Demography, Environment, Immigration, Populist Politics & White Nationalism

Ghosts of Galton and Eugenics Return – Society, Population and Environment in the 21st Century

The Bell Curve – Eugenics – IQ – Libertarian Levelling Up of Minorities and Society?

GOP Republicans’ Future – Democracy or Autocracy?

Anglosphere – Radical Right Libertarian Socioeconomics and Authoritarianism

NOM Net Overseas Migration – Immigration – Population Growth

Malthus on Population Growth, Economy, Environment, White Nationalism and Eugenics

55 Tufton Street London: US Koch & Tanton Networks’ Think Tanks – Radical Right Libertarians and Nativists

John Tanton – Australia – The Social Contract Press

Trump’s White House Immigration Policies and White Nationalist John Tanton

International Education – National Political Challenges – Return of International Students and Education in Australia

Article in The Conversation Australia titled ‘COVID halved international student numbers in Australia. The risk now is we lose future skilled workers and citizens‘ about the prospects for universities with international students returning, but in much lower numbers. This would also affect the skilled permanent immigration system by decreasing the available pool of potential applicants onshore.

However, there are several related points including the broader sector, neither countering nor rebutting nativist PR in media/politics addressing ageing monocultural voters, backgrounded by local and global demographic decline.

The latter is a contentious point as Australians have been subjected to decades of imported fossil fuel supported ZPG spruiking ‘nebulous’ NOM net overseas migration representing short term churn over (inflated by the UNPD in 2006) demanding more visa, border and immigration restrictions to halt population growth for environmental hygiene; ‘greenwashing’ and ‘dog whistling’.

While most comments reflect the zeitgeist of demanding more support for locals, a comment from Conor King, a Melbourne based academic, elaborates and explains better:

‘The article is a very narrow emphasis on a major achievement of providing education to a great number of people.  With over 80% of students leaving Australia to return to home country or go to another, the residence outcome is both useful but far from typical – 80% figures comes from Immigration-Treasury study of Australia’s population and immigration from early 2000s to mid 2010s.  

That was before the massive expansion in Chinese students in a few unis (far from all) – with Chinese students preferred by Immigration because they do return home in large numbers and otherwise tend to obey visa requirements.

What is interesting is the comments that seem to forget that humans wandered out of Africa through some mix of need, whimsy and opportunity, and have not stopped wandering since.  

For various periods some places experienced less, and the folk there suffering physical, cultural and philosophical isolation turning them inward and inbred. Reflected in current day nationalisms and their appeals to modern day stories of times past.

A national border should be like a state or local government border – an indicator of a set of ever developing local customs and rules, not a barrier to movement of people, ideas or goods.

In sum – Australia’s education institutions educate people – lots of them.  That’s good.’

King points out a misunderstanding that has been encouraged by ‘Australia’s best demographer’ informing media i.e. at times suggesting ALL students are eligible for automatic permanent residency when it’s only a minority who are eligible and then only another minority actually gain residency under the permanent cap.

Further, the sector is much broader than universities, even if they look down their noses, but also includes schools, English colleges and the vocational sector; who are also important for lower skilled pathways but also act as ‘net financial budget contributors’, why is this important?

Although the Anglosphere puts much trust in suboptimal UNPD data analysis, the OECD population data gives a much more stark graphical presentation i.e. all cohorts in most nations are in decline but increasing dependency ratios of pensioners and retirees to be supported by public services, but fewer tax payers?

COVID halved international student numbers in Australia. The risk now is we lose future skilled workers and citizens

The saying “you don’t know what you’ve got ’til it’s gone” reminds us not to take things for granted. It is often when we no longer have something or someone that we recognise the value of what we’ve lost. This is true of international students in Australia whose numbers halved during the pandemic.

Can hindsight help us understand what we had and help to guide our future? That question lingers as tens of thousands of new and returning international students arrive back in Australia now that borders have reopened.

Students pursue international education for a variety of reasons. The main one is to improve their employment prospects.

International students are looking for high-quality, relevant curriculum and credentials that will best serve their career plans. While studying, they also seek social connections that help them to navigate local education and employment systems.

The pandemic created chaos and uncertainty about enrolments, border closures, flight availability and quarantine requirements. Over the past two years, many international students had to put their plans on hold. They hung on to the possibility of studying and working in Australia.

Let’s not forget, they can choose other countries that will be seeking highly educated and skilled graduates. Some have already moved on to countries where borders were open, such as Canada. These countries offered access to high-quality international education with fewer complications and greater certainty about transitioning to work visas.

Their absence hit us hard

Consider what Australia lost when so many international students were gone. In 2019, they contributed an estimated $40.3 billion to the economy. International education supported about 250,000 jobs in Australia.

Border closures reduced enrolments by up to 70% in some parts of the higher education sector.

The financial impacts on Australian universities have been smaller than originally predicted, but the loss of billions in revenue should not be discounted. Universities were exposed to the risks of depending on a never-ending flow of new international students and their tuition fees. The pandemic’s impacts on university finances led to the loss of as many as 35,000 academic and professional jobs.

Local communities and businesses also missed the consumer power of international students and visiting family members who purchased goods and services. Employers have struggled to find enough local workers for job vacancies that these students would fill.

Australia must extend the welcome mat.

The Australian government recently announced incentives for international students to return soon to help overcome labour shortages and stimulate market growth. Visa fee rebates and relaxed restrictions on allowable working hours are aimed at recovery in the international student market, while filling gaps in the workforce. What remains to be seen is how well entry-level and part-time jobs in service and hospitality will translate into future employment opportunities that match these students’ qualifications.

The fall in international student numbers also meant losing key resources for intercultural learning. Although many of us are longing to travel abroad for a dose of intercultural exposure, learning at home between local and international students is a relatively untapped resource. Increasing the numbers of international and local students studying together is part of the solution identified by the Australian Strategy for International Education.

Many international students will need extra support to develop social capital – the friendships, community contacts, mentors and networks that help to build a sense of belonging now and in the future.

International students have been treated like commodities for higher education and the labour market. But they are people, whose choice of international education is connected to their hopes and plans after graduating.

The global pursuit of talent will increase graduates’ opportunities to decide which country they choose for education, for employment and for permanent migration. Not every international graduate will choose to stay in Australia. Fluctuating immigration policy makes it difficult to predict who will be allowed to stay and who will not.

This is not a short-term issue

Many countries, including Australia, need to attract talented graduates to make up for low birth rates, low immigration due to the pandemic and skilled worker shortages. International students are preferred immigrants because they combine experience from their home countries with experience studying and living locally.

As international students return to Australia, the welcome mat needs to stay out longer. It matters how we support them, not only upon arrival, but throughout their academic programs and as they prepare for their future employment.

International students invest in their education and the country where they study. We in turn need to recognise their many contributions and invest in their potential.

The longer-term view requires strategy for supporting them as students, employees and future associates, within and beyond Australia’s borders. Let’s think carefully about what can be improved as international students return to Australia.’

For blogs and article related to international education and demography click through:

Demography, Immigration, Population and the Greening of Hate

Population Pyramids, Economics, Ageing, Pensions, Demography and Misunderstanding Data Sets

Population Decline and Effects on Taxation, Benefits, Economy and Society

E-Learning for University Students in Africa

International Education – Foreign Student – Value

Immigration is not Cause of Unemployment

Immigration Population Growth Decline NOM Net Overseas Migration